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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. In an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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