Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
