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Growing concerns have emerged regarding the potential of military engagement between Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has intensified in the last month.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a intense verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in 2023 that his country's access to the sea was an vital issue, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the two countries have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

Five years later, a border war erupted in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and implied the intention to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrea's Response to the Statements

Amid ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been limited to brief comments on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for sea access calling it "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a strategy of claiming back former lands.

Government spokespeople alerted on mid-September that efforts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Ground

There have been few indications of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

However, in the country, state television has broadcast graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The head of staff section of the military, the officer, stated recently in an discussion that the military was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Previous Roots of the Tension

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the UK forces before turning into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this system and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A extended internal conflict followed, finishing with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then approved by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries continued at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders signed a announcement that the war was over – a decision that earned the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in the country's recent armed struggle in Tigray.

However ties have since broken down once more.