Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
